By Tommaso Franco
First published in "Australian Institute of International Affairs"
The Philippines stands today at a historical crossroads that will define its role in Southeast Asia. The country aims to become a strategic economic hub and is [1] in 2026. However, its international credibility is heavily clouded by an archaic and violent practice: “Red-Tagging”. This government strategy consists of criminalising inconvenient figures - activists, journalists, unionists, and lawyers - [2].
The Roots of Evil: From the Marcos Sr. Regime to the Present
To understand the gravity of the situation, it is necessary to delve into the historical roots of this tactic. Red-Tagging is not a recent invention, but a dark legacy from the 1960s and 70s, perfected under the authoritarian regime of Ferdinand Marcos Sr. By declaring martial law in 1972, he paved the way for authoritarianism in the Philippines. The military was thus charged with preventing and suppressing any act of insurrection or rebellion[3]. Initially, the tactic was born with the military objective of [4], the armed wing of the Communist Party of the Philippines. However, over the decades, the line between armed combatants and peaceful government critics has been deliberately blurred.
Today, under the administration of Ferdinand “Bongbong” Romualdez Marcos Jr., this military tactic has evolved into a mechanism of systematic repression supported by state apparatuses such as the NTF-ELCAC (National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict). The imminent risk is that this authoritarian drift could permanently compromise Manila's democratic reputation just on the eve of its debut as the leader of the Southeast Asian giant.
Between Crime and Bars. The Ruling That Does Not Free Frenchie Mae Cumpio
For years, Red-Tagging operated in a sort of regulatory vacuum, shielded by the rhetoric of “national security”. A turning point seemed to arrive in May 2024, when the Supreme Court of the Philippines [5]: for the first time in Philippine jurisprudence[6], judges defined Red-Tagging as a direct violation of the right to life, liberty, and security. In the landmark Deduro v. Vinoya ruling, the judges decision overturned a previous lower court ruling from 2020, which had rejected the request for a writ of amparo (a legal remedy for human rights protection) filed by activist and former legislator Siegfred Deduro[7]. As the Court states, “red-tagging” is a form of harassment and intimidation recognized by international organizations. People labeled “red” are often subjected to constant surveillance and harassment, sometimes even death[8].
Thanks to this definition, the victim doesn't need to wait until they're kidnapped or killed to seek protection; it's sufficient to demonstrate a credible threat stemming from being red-tagged. Yet, the system exists in a brutal paradox, embodied by the face of Frenchie Mae Cumpio.
[9], Cumpio was a young professional journalist [10], known for her investigations into human rights violations in rural areas. Charged with illegal possession of firearms and, subsequently, terrorism financing - charges that many organisations (Amnesty International[11], the International Federation of Journalists[12] and the National Union of Journalists of the Philippines) believe were fabricated - her story has become the symbol of the ineffectiveness of reforms.
Her January 2026 verdict, carrying a sentence of 12 to 18 years in prison, has dashed the hopes of those who saw the Supreme Court's ruling as the beginning of a new era. As highlighted by the Committe to Protect Journalists [13], Cumpio's trial is not just a legal matter, but a decisive test for Philippine democracy. If the State continues to imprison those who write the truth, the promises of internal stability and respect for democratic values made to ASEAN partners lose every shred of credibility.
Leadership or Control? Manila’s Challenge at the Helm of ASEAN
ASEAN is a political-economic bloc that unites ten nations in the name of stability and the free market. However, the Philippine chairmanship scheduled for 2026 raises profound ethical and political questions that can no longer be ignored. Can a country act as a guarantor of regional security and cooperation if, internally, it turns its own citizens into targets? According to statements made in recent years by APHR (ASEAN Parliamentarians for Human Rights), human rights violations [14]. Former Philippine Senator Leila de Lima, released in 2023 after seven years of unjust detention, has denounced the continued use of draconian laws to restrict freedom of speech, as well as the ongoing recourse to imprisonment, intimidation, and violence.
Manila presents itself on the global stage with the inclusive slogan “Navigating Our Future, Together”, seeking to position itself as a promoter of peace, security and unity, as well as a protector of vulnerable groups[15]. Yet, the actions of its internal security apparatus tell a diametrically opposite story - one of pervasive surveillance, repression of dissidents, and social control. As [16]. Amnesty International, in its [17]. Furthermore, Human Rights Watch, in its [18].
True regional leadership is not measured by the ability to impose silence through power, but by the will to protect democratic space. For ASEAN to truly progress, Manila must recognise that lasting stability is built on respect for dissent and the definitive end of a system that equates social criticism with terrorism.
The Role of the International Community and Investors
Another fundamental aspect concerns the economy. The Marcos Jr. government is actively seeking to attract foreign capital by courting non-traditional investors, with a [19] and strengthening ties with long-standing partners such as Japan, the US, and South Korea[20]. He presents the Philippines as a stable and secure democracy compared to other, more overtly authoritarian regional neighbours, [21] – currently under military junta control following the 2021 coup – or [22], often cited as an example of consolidated authoritarianism where opposition is virtually non-existent. However, the instability caused by the persecution of activists and unionists creates a climate of uncertainty. Adherence to the Rule of Law is a key parameter for global investors; if laws are used as weapons against citizens, market confidence wavers.
The United Nations, through its special rapporteurs, has repeatedly [23]. The European Union is also watching with growing concern through human rights clauses in trade agreements (such as the GSP+ system). The ASEAN chairmanship will place Manila under the global spotlight: every arbitrary arrest and every “red tag” will be amplified by the media, risking the isolation of the country instead of its elevation.
2026: The Last Call for Philippine Democracy
The Marcos Jr. administration is currently facing a coordinated ultimatum from a powerful alliance of domestic (the Supreme Court of the Philippines) and international actors (UN, Human Rights Organisations, ASEAN). This pressure forces a critical choice: will the Supreme Court's 2024 landmark ruling remain a “victory on paper” or finally evolve into a functional shield for Philippine civil society?
Recently, [24] (Special Rapporteur on freedom of expression) and [25] (former Special Rapporteur on human rights and climate change) - both of whom have extensively monitored and documented cases of red-tagging in the Philippines – along with organisations such as Amnesty International, have emphasised that, despite the Court's breakthrough, the pervasive culture of repression has not yet been dismantled. The path toward the ASEAN chairmanship requires an act of courage: to stop viewing dissent as a threat and to recognie it as the vital heartbeat of a healthy nation. The future of the Philippines in ASEAN will depend on Manila's ability to move from words to deeds, transforming a landmark ruling into real protection.
Sources
[1] ASEAN – ASEAN 2026 ABOUT THE ASEAN 2026 PHILIPPINE
CHAIRSHIP “NAVIGATING OUR FUTURE, TOGETHER”
https://asean2026.gov.ph/about
[2] UN Human Rights Council. (2024) - Statement submitted by the Commission on Human Rights of the Philippines (A/HRC/59/NI/2). United Nations Digital Library.
https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/4086981/files/A_HRC_59_NI_2-EN.pdf.
[3] Human Rights Foundation – Red-Tagging in the Philippines: A License to Kill
https://hrf.org/latest/red-tagging-in-the-philippines-a-license-to-kill/
[4] Philippines Business for Education PBEd - Dictatorship and Martial Law
https://pbed.ph/module/dictatorship-and-martial-law/
[5] Supreme Court of the Philippines - SC: Red-Tagging Threatens Right to Life, Liberty, and Security
https://sc.judiciary.gov.ph/sc-red-tagging-threatens-right-to-life-liberty-and-security/
[6] Human Rights Watch –Philippines Events of 2024
https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2025/country-chapters/philippines
[7] Global Freedom of Expression - Deduro v. Vinoya
[8] Supreme Court of the Philippines - SC: Red-Tagging Threatens Right to Life, Liberty, and Security
https://sc.judiciary.gov.ph/sc-red-tagging-threatens-right-to-life-liberty-and-security/
[9] She was 21 when arrested in 2020: She was born on January 23rd, 1999. She was arrested on Fenruary 7, 2026.
[10] Reporters Without Borders - Who is Frenchie Mae Cumpio, the iconic Filipino journalist held behind bars for six years?
[11] Amnesty International – ABUSE OF ANTI-TERROR LAW PERSISTS IN LATEST DENIAL OF BAIL AGAINST FRENCHIE MAE
[12] International Federation of Journalists – Philippines: Journalist charged for ‘terrorist financing’
[13] Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) - CPJ and 91 global media groups press Philippine leader to free Frenchie Mae Cumpio
[14] ASEAN Parliamentarians for Human Rights (APHR) - New report shows Southeast Asian parliamentarians remain at risk despite democratic trappings
[15] ASEAN – ASEAN 2026 ABOUT THE ASEAN 2026 PHILIPPINE CHAIRSHIP “NAVIGATING OUR FUTURE, TOGETHER”
https://asean2026.gov.ph/about
https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2026/country-chapters/philippines
[16] Reporters Without Borders - Who is Frenchie Mae Cumpio, the iconic Filipino journalist held behind bars for six years?
[17] Amnesty International – The State of the World’s Human Rights: April 2025
https://www.amnesty.org/en/documents/pol10/8515/2025/en/
[18] Human Rights Watch – World Report 2026, Philippines
https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2026/country-chapters/philippines
[19] Office of the President of the Philippines - President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. at the ASEAN Editors and Economic Opinion Leaders Forum: Fireside Chat “Tapping the Philippines Dynamic Growth Story”
[20] Bangko Sentral NG Pilipinas - FDI records US$897M net inflows in November 2025; YTD level at US$7.1B
[21] Amnesty International – Myanmar: Junta Atrocities Surge 5 Years since Coup
https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2026/01/myanmar-junta-atrocities-surge-5-years-since-coup/
[22] Human Rights Watch – Cambodia Events of 2024
[23] Human Rights Foundation – Red-Tagging in the Philippines: A License to Kill
https://hrf.org/latest/red-tagging-in-the-philippines-a-license-to-kill/
[24] Human Rights Watch – UN Expert Slams Philippines ‘Red-Tagging’
[25] UN General Assembly - Visit to the Philippines Report of the Special Rapporteur on the promotion and protection of human rights in the context of climate change, Ian Fry