In order to assess the risk of war in the Taiwan Strait, several key variables need to be considered. This article will discuss a key regional trend that may show important implications for stability across the Taiwan Strait, namely the shifting of military balance. Moreover, it will refer to the concept of public opinion warfare and connect it to the Taiwan Strait discussion.
On 31st of July 2022, a U.S. drone strike killed Ayman al-Zawahiri, the leader of al-Qa’ida, in the centre of the Afghan capital Kabul, an incident that triggered a flurry of media reports and analyses. However, a closer look reveals that reliable information about the incident and its implications is limited.
Since the 1990s, Chinese experts and theorists have been analyzing the concept of
information warfare with great interest. In fact, they started to offer
definitions and insight into information warfare as early as 1985. This paper seeks to offer an overview of the definitions of information warfare as
formulated by the Chinese experts Shen Weiguang, Wang Pufeng, Wang Baocun, Liang
Zhenxing, and Yuan Banggen.
Since the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan, they made headlines by re-imposing repressive autocratic laws for which they had become notorious during their previous regime in the 1990s. However, in one remote corner of the country that the current central government as well as bygone ones have barely, if at all, reached, locals govern themselves quasi-democratically — with the acquiescence, and sometimes even participation, of the Taliban.
After the Taliban’s toppling of the Afghan Republic in August 2021, several Afghan groups have announced armed resistance against the new Taliban emirate. The Swiss Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA) takes a closer look at such resistance groups, showing that, while much is propaganda, some have the ability to attack the Taliban, but are — at least for the foreseeable future — unlikely to become an existential threat to Taliban rule.
The Fog of War - the sheer impossibility of accurately interpreting the current military situation, but also the omnipresent information war - is creating facts. It is becoming apparent that from a strategic and geopolitical standpoint, Russia's war of aggression is likely to lead to a Western defeat. An assessment by the Swiss Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA):
The escalating crisis in Ukraine is a good example of how information is strategically being used for the sake of gaining political leverage and power. The skillful and deliberate use of information nowadays creates new realities in our physical and virtual space.
The war in Ukraine is still, after more than one week, a sad reality. The direct consequences for the people in this region are devastating. The Swiss Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA) has analysed and compiled the geopolitical consequences and potential Spillover effects of the war in Ukraine.
Afghanistan is since years the biggest source of the world’s supply of illicit opium and heroin and has recently also become a major methamphetamine producer. While the new Taliban government in general vows to curb narcotics production and trafficking in Afghanistan, visits of the Swiss Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA) to a notorious narcotics bazaar that has seen a downturn in activity and to newly established heroin ‘laboratories’ elsewhere in the country paint a more complex picture.